The final Pew Research Center poll of the 2008 presidential election gives Barack Obama a 49 to 42 percent lead over his rival, John McCain. Though still a significant lead, it's suddenly a much tighter race than Obama's 15-point lead from last week.
There are two things closing the gap, says Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center. First, McCain has made some gains among whites, independents and middle-income voters. But the other boost he's enjoying comes from narrowing the pool of responses from registered voters to likely voters.
Typically, Republican voters tend to vote more regularly than some Democratic voting groups — particularly young people and blacks, Kohut says. So while turnout is up among those groups, it's also up across the board — giving Republicans a boost when the poll focuses on likely voters.
It may not be as strong as a week ago, but Obama's lead in the Pew poll agrees with several national polls that have him ahead by a 5-point average.
"This is a pretty substantial lead," Kohut says. "We haven't had a lead for a candidate this substantial since 1996, when President Clinton was leading Sen. Dole in the final weekend of the campaign."
But that's not the only poll data leaning in Obama's favor.
The strength of each candidate's support among likely voters has historically been a significant indicator of a race's outcome. According to the Pew poll, 36 percent of likely voters say they strongly support Obama, while only 24 percent say they are strong supporters of McCain.
"Typically," Kohut says, "if we look back to elections going back to 1960, invariably the candidate with the stronger support wins the election."
Despite the numbers, Kohut warns, you can't take voters for granted. But he admits that it would take something pretty big to upend what most of the polls are showing. "But in an election where the unexpected is the expected," Kohut teases, "who knows?"
Monday, November 3, 2008
election day
Election Day in the United States is the day set by law for the selection of public officials by popular ballot. For federal offices, it occurs on the first Tuesday following the first Monday of November (so the earliest possible date is November 2 and the latest November 8). Presidential elections are held every four years. Elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate are held every two years. Many state and local government offices are also elected on Election Day as a matter of convenience and cost saving. However, a handful of states hold elections for state offices during odd numbered, off years; this varies according to state and local laws.
In Federal elections, all members of the House of Representatives are elected for two-year terms together with one-third of the Senate for six-year terms. In years with a presidential election, electors for President and Vice-president are also chosen according to the method determined by each state.
Congress has mandated a uniform date for Presidential (3 U.S.C. § 1) and Congressional (2 U.S.C. § 1 and 2 U.S.C. § 7) elections, though early voting is nonetheless authorized in many states. In Oregon, where all elections are vote-by-mail, all ballots must be received by a set time on Election Day, as is common with absentee ballots in most states (except overseas military ballots which receive more time by Federal law). In the state of Washington, where most counties are vote-by-mail (and in the others most votes are cast by mail as permanent absentee ballots), ballots need only be postmarked by Election Day.
Election Day is a legal holiday in some states, including Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia. Some other states have laws that allow workers to take time off from employment without reprisal, and often without loss in pay. California law simply states employees must be allowed to vote, but since voting can be done before or after working hours no time off or pay is offered by many employers. Democratic Representative John Conyers of Michigan recently introduced a bill in the House of Representatives that would make Election Day a national holiday called Democracy Day.
In Federal elections, all members of the House of Representatives are elected for two-year terms together with one-third of the Senate for six-year terms. In years with a presidential election, electors for President and Vice-president are also chosen according to the method determined by each state.
Congress has mandated a uniform date for Presidential (3 U.S.C. § 1) and Congressional (2 U.S.C. § 1 and 2 U.S.C. § 7) elections, though early voting is nonetheless authorized in many states. In Oregon, where all elections are vote-by-mail, all ballots must be received by a set time on Election Day, as is common with absentee ballots in most states (except overseas military ballots which receive more time by Federal law). In the state of Washington, where most counties are vote-by-mail (and in the others most votes are cast by mail as permanent absentee ballots), ballots need only be postmarked by Election Day.
Election Day is a legal holiday in some states, including Delaware, Hawaii, Kentucky, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia. Some other states have laws that allow workers to take time off from employment without reprisal, and often without loss in pay. California law simply states employees must be allowed to vote, but since voting can be done before or after working hours no time off or pay is offered by many employers. Democratic Representative John Conyers of Michigan recently introduced a bill in the House of Representatives that would make Election Day a national holiday called Democracy Day.
election polls
http://www.google.com/search?q=election+polls&sourceid=navclient-ff&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1B3GGGL_enIL243IL244&aq=t
Thursday, October 16, 2008
palin for vp
"Another bad day Wall Street", opened guiding the conflict, Bob Schiffer, Mgys Ahuotaiq of "facing across the nation," the CBS network and let mccain obama open conflict between programs that are offered economic Hemmota last two.
John Kane opened surprisingly: "A few days before experiencing obama Evsrebreb from Ohio named Joe, who works 10-12 hours a day to pay higher income tax as part of your economic program. obama talking about the rich, but his plan to increase taxes Owners of small businesses generate sources of employment ".
John Kane opened surprisingly: "A few days before experiencing obama Evsrebreb from Ohio named Joe, who works 10-12 hours a day to pay higher income tax as part of your economic program. obama talking about the rich, but his plan to increase taxes Owners of small businesses generate sources of employment ".
mccain obama debates
This night was perhaps the last opportunity of the mccain surprise Ssanatwer Barak obama, remove Mshlwtho Clhcle shake American public opinion. anyway, two surveys conducted after the conflict פוסקים: Victory is the obama.
The conflict is added to both the first clash, Tennessee Mississippi, which studied the mccain Evsharo that's hard to shake the obama and drag it a provocation.
The conflict is added to both the first clash, Tennessee Mississippi, which studied the mccain Evsharo that's hard to shake the obama and drag it a provocation.
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