Election 2008 Topics and Trends

uppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Barack Obama, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican]?

(Asked of those who are undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Obama, the Democrat (or) McCain, the Republican]?

	Obama	McCain	Other (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely voters
2008 Jul 25-27	45	49	1	1	4
2008 June 15-19	50	44	1	2	3
2008 May 30-Jun 1	49	44	1	4	2
2008 May 1-3	47	48	1	3	1
2008 Apr 18-20	49	44	1	3	3
2008 Mar 14-16	49	47	1	1	2
2008 Feb 21-24	47	48	1	2	2
2008 Feb 8-10	50	46	*	2	1
2008 Jan 10-13	45	50	1	2	2
Registered voters
2008 Jul 25-27	47	44	1	3	5
2008 June 15-19	48	42	1	4	5
2008 May 30-Jun 1	47	44	1	5	3
2008 May 1-3	45	47	1	5	2
2008 Apr 18-20	47	44	2	4	4
2008 Mar 14-16	48	47	1	2	3
2008 Feb 21-24	49	45	1	3	2
2008 Feb 8-10	49	46	1	3	2
2008 Jan 10-13	44	50	*	2	3
2007 Nov 11-14	47	44	*	6	4
2007 Jun 11-14	48	46	*	3	2
2007 Feb 9-11	48	48	*	2	2
National adults
2008 Jul 25-27	47	42	1	4	6
2008 June 15-19	49	41	1	4	5
2008 May 30-Jun 1	47	43	1	6	3
2008 May 1-3	46	45	1	5	3
2008 Apr 18-20	48	42	2	5	3
2008 Mar 14-16	47	46	1	3	3
2008 Feb 21-24	51	43	1	3	2
2008 Feb 8-10	49	45	1	3	2
2008 Jan 10-13	46	48	*	3	2
2007 Nov 11-14	47	42	*	7	5
2007 Jun 11-14	48	45	*	4	3
2007 Feb 9-11	47	48	*	2	3
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response

Which one of the candidates running for president do you plan to vote for in November? (OPEN ENDED)

(If undecided) Are you currently leaning toward voting for one of the candidates for president in November? [IF YES:] Who is that? (OPEN ENDED)

2008 Aug 7-10	Registered voters	National adults
Barack Obama (Democrat)	45	44
John McCain (Republican)	38	38
Bob Barr (Libertarian Party)	1	*
Ralph Nader (Independent)	1	*
Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)	*	*
Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party)	--	--
Hillary Clinton	1	1
Other	1	1
None	5	6
Won't vote (vol.)	2	3
No opinion	6	7
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response

Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be re-elected, or not. How about -- [ROTATED]?

A. The U.S. Representative in your congressional district

	Yes, deserves	No, does not	No opinion
	%	%	%
Registered voters
2008 Jul 25-27	57	29	14
2008 Jun 15-19	62	26	12
Likely voters
2008 Jul 25-27	58	30	12
2008 Jun 15-19	62	27	11
National adults
2008 Jul 25-27	55	28	17
2008 Jun 15-19	63	24	14
Note: Full 1992-2008 trend not shown

B. Most members of Congress

	Yes, deserves	No, does not	No opinion
	%	%	%
Registered voters
2008 Jul 25-27	36	52	12
2008 Jun 15-19	39	50	11
Likely voters
2008 Jul 25-27	34	54	12
2008 Jun 15-19	38	52	10
National adults
2008 Jul 25-27	36	50	14
2008 Jun 15-19	41	47	11
Note: Full 1992-2008 trend not shown

Do you think -- [RANDOM ORDER] -- can -- or cannot -- handle the responsibilities of commander-in-chief of the military?

A. Barack Obama

	Yes, can	No, cannot	No opinion
	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	52	41	7
2008 Jun 15-19	55	40	5

B. John McCain

	Yes, can	No, cannot	No opinion
	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	76	19	5
2008 Jun 15-19	80	17	3

For comparison (2004 election):

George W. Bush

	Yes, can	No, cannot	No opinion
	%	%	%
2004 Oct 14-16	65	34	1
2004 Oct 1-3	66	33	1
2004 Sep 24-26	67	31	2
2004 Sep 3-5	68	32	*
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	61	38	1
2004 Jun 21-23	61	35	4
* Less than 0.5%

John Kerry

	Yes, can	No, cannot	No opinion
	%	%	%
2004 Oct 14-16	57	40	3
2004 Oct 1-3	53	43	4
2004 Sep 24-26	49	46	5
2004 Sep 3-5	55	40	5
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	63	33	4
2004 Jun 21-23	61	30	9

Now, please think for a moment about the in which way Barack Obama and John McCain would handle important issues as president. When it comes to handling -- [RANDOM ORDER], please tell me if you think -- [ROTATED: both Obama and McCain would do a good job, neither would do a good job, only Obama would do a good job, (or) only McCain would do a good job]?

A. The economy

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	19	17	35	24	5
2008 Jun 15-19	23	13	36	23	5

B. Terrorism

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	28	10	17	39	6
2008 Jun 15-19	30	8	19	40	3

C. The situation in Iraq

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	17	11	31	36	5
2008 Jun 15-19	15	9	36	37	3

D. Energy, including gas prices

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	16	21	34	23	6
2008 Jun 15-19	23	17	36	19	5

E. (Asked of a half sample) Relations with other countries

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	27	5	35	28	5

F. (Asked of a half sample) Dealing with foreign leaders

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	31	7	28	30	4

G. Moral values

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	38	9	22	26	5

H. Illegal immigration

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	27	19	22	25	7

I. Healthcare

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	22	15	40	18	5

J. Taxes

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	21	15	33	27	4

(Asked of those who say "both" would do a good job on a given issue) If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on -- [RANDOM ORDER AS APPROPRIATE] -- [ROTATED: Barack Obama (or) John McCain]?

COMBINED RESULTS: CANDIDATE WHO WOULD DO A BETTER JOB ON EACH ISSUE

A. The economy

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	45	30	17	8
2008 Jun 15-19	48	32	13	7

B. Terrorism

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	32	48	10	10
2008 Jun 15-19	33	52	8	7

C. The situation in Iraq

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	40	42	11	7
2008 Jun 15-19	43	43	9	5

D. Energy, including gas prices

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	41	28	21	10
2008 Jun 15-19	47	28	17	8

E. (Asked of a half sample) Relations with other countries

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	52	37	5	6

F. (Asked of a half sample) Dealing with foreign leaders

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	47	39	7	7

G. Healthcare

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	51	26	15	8

H. Taxes

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	44	35	15	6

I. Moral values

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	40	39	9	12

J. Illegal immigration

	Obama	McCain	Neither do a good job	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	34	36	19	11

In your view, has the news media's coverage of John McCain during the presidential campaign been -- [ROTATED: unfairly positive, about right, or unfairly negative]?

	Unfairly positive	About right	Unfairly negative	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	12	46	32	10

In your view, has the news media's coverage of Barack Obama during the presidential campaign been -- [ROTATED: unfairly positive, about right, or unfairly negative]?

	Unfairly positive	About right	Unfairly negative	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	39	39	15	7

As you may know, Barack Obama is concluding his overseas trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Europe. Would you say you have a -- [ROTATED: very positive, positive, negative, (or) very negative] opinion of this trip, or don't you know enough to say?

	Very positive	Positive	Negative	Very negative	Don't know enough to say	No answer
	%	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jul 25-27	12	23	17	9	38	1

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- [ROTATE: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?

As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate]?

	Democratic candidate	Republican candidate	Undecided/ Other
	%	%	%
Likely voters
2008 Jun 15-19	52	42	7
2008 Feb 8-10	55	41	3
Registered voters
2008 Jun 15-19	51	40	9
2008 Feb 8-10	55	40	4
2007 Dec 14-16	53	40	7
National adults
2008 Jun 15-19	52	40	9
2008 Feb 8-10	56	40	4
2007 Dec 14-16	53	39	9

Are you certain now that you will vote for [Barack Obama/John McCain] for president, or do you think you may change your mind between now and the November election?

	Vote for Obama, certain	Vote for Obama, may change mind	Vote for McCain, may change mind	Vote for McCain, certain	No opinion	NET: "Swing voters"
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely voters
2008 Jun 15-19	42	8	9	35	6	23
Registered voters
2008 Jun 15-19	38	10	11	31	10	31
National adults
2008 Jun 15-19	39	10	11	30	10	31
NOTE: "Swing voters" include those who are uncertain about their vote choice or have no opinion as to whom they would vote for.

Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic?

	More enthusiastic	Less enthusiastic	Same (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered voters
2008 Jun 15-19	48	37	14	1
2008 Feb 8-10	63	29	8	*
2008 Jan 10-13 ^	62	28	10	1
2004 Oct 14-16 ^	67	21	12	*
2004 Sep 3-5 ^	65	23	11	1
2004 Aug 23-25 ^	60	29	11	--
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 ^	69	22	9	--
2004 Jul 19-21 ^	60	25	14	1
2004 Mar 26-28	52	29	18	1
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	56	32	12	*
2000 Oct 13-15	38	39	20	3
2000 Mar 10-12	39	38	22	1
2000 Jan 7-10	45	37	17	1
1996 Oct 23-24	17	36	45	2
National adults
2008 Jun 15-19	48	37	14	1
2008 Feb 8-10	62	30	7	1
2008 Jan 10-13 ^	60	29	10	1
2004 Oct 14-16 ^	65	23	11	1
2004 Sep 3-5 ^	64	24	11	1
2004 Aug 23-25 ^	57	32	10	1
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 ^	67	25	8	*
2004 Jul 19-21 ^	59	27	13	1
2004 Mar 26-28	51	32	16	1
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	55	34	10	1
2000 Mar 10-12	37	40	21	2
2000 Jan 7-10	43	38	17	2
Democrats/Democratic leaners
2008 Jun 15-19	61	25	13	1
2008 Feb 8-10	79	15	6	*
2008 Jan 10-13 ^	74	19	6	1
2004 Oct 14-16 ^	67	23	10	--
2004 Sep 3-5 ^	62	29	7	2
2004 Aug 23-25 ^	60	30	10	*
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 ^	73	21	6	--
2004 Jul 19-21 ^	68	20	12	--
2004 Mar 26-28	51	35	13	1
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	59	34	6	1
2000 Mar 10-12	33	47	19	1
2000 Jan 7-10	39	42	17	2
Republicans/Republican leaners
2008 Jun 15-19	35	51	13	1
2008 Feb 8-10	44	48	8	*
2008 Jan 10-13 ^	49	37	12	2
2004 Oct 14-16 ^	68	19	12	1
2004 Sep 3-5 ^	69	18	13	*
2004 Aug 23-25 ^	60	30	9	1
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1 ^	62	27	11	*
2004 Jul 19-21 ^	51	32	15	2
2004 Mar 26-28	52	27	20	1
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	31	15	1
2000 Mar 10-12	45	32	22	1
2000 Jan 7-10	51	32	16	1
NOTE: TREND FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
^ Asked of half sample
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response

How much difference do you think the result of the election for president will make to you and your family -- a great deal of difference, quite a lot, not much, or no difference at all?

2008 Jun 15-19	A great deal	Quite a lot	Not much	None at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely voters	38	32	19	8	3
Registered voters	34	30	22	11	3
National adults	32	29	24	12	3

For comparison (Harris Polls)
	A great deal	Quite a lot	Not much	None at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2004 Oct 14-17 (likely voters)	43	30	19	6	1
2000 Oct 19-26 (reg. voters)	22	32	31	12	4
1996 Oct 17-20 (likely voters)	19	29	39	10	2

Which best describes your view of Barack Obama and John McCain -- [ROTATED: both would be a good president, neither would be a good president, only Barack Obama would be a good president (or) only John McCain would be a good president]?

	Both	Neither	Only Obama	Only McCain	No opinion
2008 Jun 15-19	24%	18	30	24	4

For comparison (2004 election):

	Both would be good	Neither would be good	Only Kerry would be good	Only Bush would be good	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2004 Oct 14-16	12	8	38	40	2
2004 Sep 3-5	15	11	33	40	1
2004 Feb 16-17	21	8	36	32	3

Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide who to vote for -- [ROTATED: where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you (or) the leadership skills and vision that you think the candidates would have as president]?

	Stance on the issues	Leadership skills and vision	Both equally (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	No opinion
Likely voters	%	%	%	%	%
2008 Jun 15-19	43	46	10	*	1
2008 Feb 8-10	48	44	7	*	1
2004 Oct 1-3	39	46	14	*	1
2004 Sep 24-26	37	48	14	*	1
2004 Sep 3-5	38	50	11	*	1
2004 Jan 2-5	40	50	9	*	1
2000 Oct 20-22	44	36	17	1	2
2000 Sep 28-30	44	36	15	2	3
2000 Sep 11-13	44	38	15	1	2
2000 Sep 10-12	47	35	14	1	3
2000 Sep 9-11	48	33	16	1	2
2000 Sep 8-10	48	33	16	1	2
2000 Sep 7-9	45	35	16	1	3
2000 Aug 18-19	43	37	18	1	1
2000 Aug 11-12	46	36	17	*	1
2000 Jul 25-26	40	39	20	*	1
2000 Mar 10-12	38	50	11	1	*
2000 Feb 25-27	41	47	11	*	1
2000 Feb 4-6	39	48	12	*	1
2000 Jan 17-19	37	44	17	--	2
2000 Jan 13-16	39	47	13	1	--
2000 Jan 7-10	36	51	12	1	*
Registered voters
2008 Jun 15-19	42	45	10	*	3
2008 Feb 8-10	46	44	7	1	1
2004 Oct 1-3	40	45	13	*	2
2004 Sep 24-26	36	47	15	*	2
2004 Sep 3-5	39	47	11	1	2
2004 Jan 2-5	42	50	7	*	1
2000 Oct 20-22	43	38	15	1	3
2000 Sep 28-30	45	34	15	2	4
2000 Sep 11-13	46	36	13	1	4
2000 Sep 10-12	48	34	13	1	4
2000 Sep 9-11	48	33	15	*	4
2000 Sep 8-10	49	33	14	1	3
2000 Sep 7-9	46	34	15	1	4
2000 Aug 18-19	43	39	16	1	1
2000 Aug 11-12	45	37	15	1	2
2000 Jul 25-26	39	40	18	1	2
2000 Mar 10-12	37	50	10	1	2
2000 Feb 25-27	41	48	10	*	1
2000 Feb 4-6	40	46	12	*	2
2000 Jan 17-19	36	46	16	*	2
2000 Jan 13-16	35	51	11	1	2
2000 Jan 7-10	38	50	10	1	1
National adults
2008 Jun 15-19	42	45	9	1	3
2008 Feb 8-10	45	45	7	1	1
2004 Oct 1-3	39	46	12	1	2
2004 Sep 24-26	35	48	14	1	2
2004 Sep 3-5	39	47	12	*	2
2004 Jan 2-5	41	50	7	*	2
2000 Aug 18-19	43	40	14	1	2
2000 Aug 11-12	44	37	14	2	3
2000 Jul 25-26	39	41	17	1	2
2000 Mar 10-12	38	50	10	1	1
2000 Feb 25-27	40	48	10	*	2
2000 Feb 4-6	39	47	11	1	2
2000 Jan 17-19	37	44	16	1	2
2000 Jan 13-16	36	50	11	1	2
2000 Jan 7-10	37	49	10	1	3
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) = Volunteered response